Practice The Plan

I read a post on the Pilots of America forum last night, posted by a pilot I know. The post provides an interesting approach to keeping our skills sharp and allows fellow pilots to "brainstorm" on how we each attack the plan.

The scenario:

KLNS(Lancaster,PA)to KINT(Winston Salem,NC)
Time: 04/01/2011 1330 Z
Aircraft: de-iced Piper. New boots all around, prop de-ice, alcohol windshield.
122 kt climb AS; 750-1000 fpm with the expected load. 10,000 foot limit.
Go-nogo? What route and altitude?

DUATS WX:

PA
W 1/3...OVERCAST AT 3000 FT TOP LAYERED FL200. VIS 3-5SM LIGHT SNOW MIST. 15Z BROKEN 5/8-7/8 COVERAGE AT 4000 FT TOP 100. 20Z BROKEN 5/8-7/8 COVERAGE AT 6000 FT. OUTLOOK...VFR.

CENTRAL 1/3...OVERCAST AT 3000 FT TOP FL200. VIS 3-5SM LIGHT RAIN SNOW MIST. 16Z BROKEN 5/8-7/8 COVERAGE AT 4000 FT.

20Z BROKEN 5/8-7/8 COVERAGE AT 4000 FT TOP 100. OUTLOOK...MARGINAL VFR CEILING. 02Z VFR.

E 1/3...OVERCAST AT 2000 FT TOP LAYERED FL200. VIS 3-5SM LIGHT RAIN SNOW MIST. 18Z OVERCAST AT 3000 FT TOP 150. OUTLOOK...MARGINAL VFR CEILING.

WV
W HALF...OVERCAST AT 3000 FT TOP 100. VIS 3-5SM MIST. 15Z BROKEN 5/8-7/8 COVERAGE AT 5000 FT. OUTLOOK...VFR. 00Z  MARGINAL VFR CEILING.

E HALF...OVERCAST AT 4000 FT TOP 100. VIS 3-5SM LIGHT SNOW MIST. 16Z BROKEN 5/8-7/8 COVERAGE-OVERCAST AT 5000 FT. OUTLOOK...MARGINAL VFR CEILING.

MD DC DE VA
W HALF MD/NORTHWESTERN VA...OVERCAST AT 4000 FT TOP 100. VIS 3-5SM LIGHT SNOW RAIN MIST. 15Z

BROKEN 5/8-7/8 COVERAGE AT 4000 FT. 17Z BROKEN 5/8-7/8 COVERAGE AT 5000 FT. WIND NORTHWEST G25KT. OUTLOOK...VFR WIND.  02Z VFR.

E HALF MD/NORTHEASTERN VA/DC/DE...OVERCAST AT 1000 FT TOP 150. VIS 3-5SM LIGHT RAIN MIST. 14Z BROKEN 5/8-7/8 COVERAGE AT 3000 FT TOP 100. 18Z BROKEN 5/8-7/8 COVERAGE AT 5000 FT. WIND NORTHWEST G25KT. OUTLOOK...VFR 

SW-S CENTRAL VA...OVC030-040 TOP 080. VIS 3-5SM MIST. 15Z SCATTERED 3/8-4/8 COVERAGE-BROKEN 5/8-7/8 COVERAGE AT 5000 FT.  18Z SCATTERED 3/8-4/8 COVERAGE AT 5000 FT. WIND W G25KT. OUTLOOK...VFR.

SOUTHEAST VA...OVERCAST AT 1000 FT TOP 060. VIS 3-5SM MIST. 16Z BROKEN 5/8-7/8 COVERAGE AT 2000 FT OVERCAST AT 4000 FT. 20Z BROKEN 5/8-7/8 COVERAGE AT 5000 FT TOP 080. OUTLOOK...VFR.

COASTAL WATERS
N OF ACK...OVERCAST AT 1000 FT TOP FL250. VIS 3-5SM LIGHT RAIN SNOW MIST. ISOL EMBD LIGHT THUNDERSTORM RAIN. CUMULONIMBUS TOP FL350. WIND E 30G40KT. BECOMING 1820 OVERCAST AT 3000 FT TOP 080.  OUTLOOK...MARGINAL VFR CEILING.

REMAINDER E OF HTO...OVERCAST AT 1000 FT TOP FL280. VIS 3-5SM LIGHT RAIN. ISOL EMBD -  THUNDERSTORM RAIN. CUMULONIMBUS TOP FL350. BECOMING 1518 OVERCAST AT 2000 FT TOP 080. WIND W G25KT.  OUTLOOK...MARGINAL VFR CEILING.

W OF HTO...OVERCAST AT 1000 FT TOP 080 BROKEN CIRRUS. 18Z BROKEN 5/8-7/8 COVERAGE AT 2000 FT. WIND W G25KT.  OUTLOOK...MARGINAL VFR CEILING WIND.

SYNOPSIS AND VFR CLOUDS/WEATHER
SYNOPSIS VALID UNTIL 020300
CLOUDS/WEATHER VALID UNTIL 012100...OUTLOOK VALID 012100-020300

NC SC GA FL AND COASTAL WATERS E OF 85W
SEE AIRMET SIERRA FOR IFR CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCURATION.

THUNDERSTORM IMPLY SEVERE OR GTR TURBULENCE SEVERE ICE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND IFR CONDITIONS.  NON MSL HEIGHTS DENOTED BY ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OR CEILING.

SURFACE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS:
KLNS (LANCASTER, PA) SCHEDULED OBSERVATION 01/1053 UTC,
WIND FROM 300 DEGREES AT 5 KTS, VISIBILITY 3.00 MILES, WEATHER LIGHT SNOW, MIST, SKY OVERCAST AT 2400 FT, TEMPERATURE 1C (33 DEG F), DEW POINT 0C (32 DEG F), ALTIMETER SETTING 29.49 INCHES.

KFDK (FREDERICK, MD) SCHEDULED OBSERVATION 01/1057 UTC, AUTOMATED SOURCE, WIND CALM, VISIBILITY 2.50 MILES, WEATHER MIST, SKY OVERCAST AT 2000 FT, TEMPERATURE 2C (35 DEG F), DEW POINT 2C (35 DEG F),ALTIMETER SETTING 29.56 INCHES.

KMRB (MARTINSBURG, WV) SCHEDULED OBSERVATION 01/1053 UTC, WIND FROM 290 DEGREES AT 7 KTS, VISIBILITY 10.00 MILES,SKY 1/8-2/8 COVERAGE AT 6000 FT, OVERCAST AT 11000 FT, TEMPERATURE 3C (37 DEG F), DEW POINT 1C (33 DEG F), ALTIMETER SETTING 29.54 INCHES.
 
KOKV (WINCHESTER, VA) SCHEDULED OBSERVATION 01/1100 UTC, AUTOMATED SOURCE, WIND FROM 320 DEGREES AT 4 KTS, VISIBILITY 10.00 MILES, SKY SCATTERED 3/8-4/8 COVERAGE AT 5500 FT, OVERCAST AT 11000 FT, TEMPERATURE 3C (37 DEG F), DEW POINT 3C (37 DEG F), ALTIMETER SETTING 29.55 INCHES.
 
KINT (WINSTON SALEM, NC) SCHEDULED OBSERVATION 01/1054 UTC, AUTOMATED SOURCE, WIND FROM 300 DEGREES AT 3 KTS, VISIBILITY 10.00 MILES, SKY CLEAR BELOW 12,000 FT, TEMPERATURE 3C (37 DEG F), DEW POINT -1C (31 DEG F), ALTIMETER SETTING 29.62 INCHES.
 
KINT (WINSTON SALEM, NC) AERODROME FORECAST AMENDED 01/0810 UTC, FOR USE FROM 010800Z TO 020600Z, AT 010800Z, WIND FROM 310 DEGREES AT 5 KTS, VISIBILITY OVER 6.00 MILES, SKY BROKEN 5/8-7/8 COVERAGE AT 12000 FT,
FROM 011300Z, WIND FROM 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS, GUSTING TO 18 KTS, VISIBILITY OVER 6.00 MILES, SKY SCATTERED 3/8-4/8 COVERAGE AT 5000 FT,
TEMPORARY CHANGES BETWEEN 011800Z AND 012200Z, WIND FROM 300 DEGREES AT 15 KTS, GUSTING TO 23 KTS, VISIBILITY OVER 6.00 MILES, SKY SCATTERED 3/8-4/8 COVERAGE AT 7000 FT,
FROM 012300Z, WIND FROM 270 DEGREES AT 5 KTS, VISIBILITY OVER 6.00 MILES, SKY BROKEN 5/8-7/8 COVERAGE AT 8000 FT
 
WINDS ALOFT FORECASTS

DATA BASED ON 010600Z
VALID 011200Z FOR USE 0800-1500Z. TEMPS NEG ABV 24000
FEET EMI AVP ACY PSB EKN RIC ROA RDU
3000 3326 3618 3510 3323 3231 3318
6000 3321-05 0112-07 2907-0 3414-07 3323-09 3122-05 3320-05 2823-03
8000 3113-08 0104-08 2415-05 3309-10 3223-12 2822-08 3019-08 2727-06
9000 2911-10 9900-09 2320-06 3206-12 3123-13 2724-09 2821-10 2630-08

My flight plan choice last night was for the east side of DC and stay with warmer temps. This morning, after reviewing wx and downing a second cup of tea from dunkin donuts, I would change my flight plans.  I like the west side of DC that is now clearing out and once Lancaster (LNS) opened up a bit and the snow passed I would check freezing levels again. If a go for launch was the decision I would take the following route, KLNS LRP V143 LEAKS V20 PROVE KINT (pictured below).

I know this post was a very brief recap of the process that is invloved in the go-nogo decision. The flight plan takes time and the process we take to reach our final decision is there to keep us safe.  I use skew T diagrams, AOPA wx, Vans airforce wx, DUATS and pretty much what ever else gives me that comfort factor.  I will say that I keep to the same process, follow an order of sorts to put the pieces of my plan together and plot it out.

 I want to ask those of you Pilots and student pilots reading along, what do you do, what if anything is different from the norm in your typical planning? What do you do that others don't, what out of the box methods can you share with us?